TABJ - May 25 - Following decent growth last year, Newfoundland and Labrador’s international exports are forecast to surge by 17 per cent this year and rise by a more modest four per cent in 2012, according to a Global Export Forecast by Export Development Canada (EDC).

“Commodity prices are the big story behind the province’s export outlook, pushing international sales up this year, and then restraining growth in 2012. Higher throughput of iron ore, copper and nickel will offset lower prices to keep overall growth in the black next year,” Peter Hall, Chief Economist for EDC, said in a report.

“Strong demand from China and Western Europe will add to a broad based recovery in U.S.-bound shipments, giving a major boost to exports of ore.”

The province’s international export picture is led by three key sectors, including energy, accounting for 65 per cent of the province’s total exports; industrial goods, at 24 per cent, and agri-food, at nine per cent.

Newfoundland and Labrador’s international energy exports are forecast to rise 10 per cent in 2011 before falling by less than one per cent in 2012. Falling crude production is anticipated through 2012.

EDC expects oil prices to fall as the global economy recovers. The unwinding of speculation is expected to lower WTI crude to an average of USD 95/brl in 2011 and USD 90/brl in 2012. Recent market reactions to events in the Middle East and North Africa have driven prices higher, but the effect is likely temporary, according to the report.

EDC’s forecast for Newfoundland’s industrial goods sector calls for a jump of 37 per cent in 2011 and a further gain of 15 per cent in 2012. The positive outlook is based on favourable developments in the iron ore, copper and nickel sectors. Exports of iron ore will benefit from higher prices this year, and from larger shipments as production ramps up at IOC, Wabush and Labrador Iron Mines through 2012. Sector prospects beyond 2012 continue to be bright, thanks to investments by New Millennium Capital Corporation and Tata Steel Ltd.

The province’s shipments of copper and nickel are expected to grow owing to the end of the strike at Voisey’s Bay, combined with higher output from Beaver Brook Antimony Mine, Duck Pond Mine and other smaller operations.